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May 31 2012

California Field Poll: Tobacco Tax Measure Slipping in Support

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The latest California Field poll is out.

California voters still favor a ballot measure to raise the state’s tobacco tax, but the margin is slipping, suggesting a potentially close finish in the election Tuesday.

The measure, once supported by a wide majority of Californians, now leads by only eight percentage points among likely voters, 50 percent to 42 percent, according to a Field Poll released today.

The race’s tightening follows a flood of advertising by tobacco companies against the tax.

“It’s on a downward trajectory,” poll director Mark DiCamillo said. “The question is how steep is the slope downward. I suspect it will get closer than eight points.”

Ultimately, the tobacco tax measure will fall, if there is a turn out of older Republican voters.

If the measure had been written better and the money raised would have gone to California-based foundations/research facilities that fight smoking, the initiative would have easily passed.

This race may be close.

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