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Jun 05 2012

Key California Races to Watch Tonight

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Today is California Presidential Primary election day.

Here are the key California races that I will be watching tonight:

Congressional:

CA-26: Republican Tony Strickland Vs. No Party Preference Linda Parks Vs. Democrat Julia Brownley and three other Democrats. This race will test the new top two election susytem in California. Will Linda Parks be able to knock out Julia Brownley from second place in this marginally Democratic registration Congressional district. In any event, this will be a an intensely fought race in November between winning candidates tonight.

CA-24: Will conservative Republican Chris Mitchum be able to knock off Republican and former Lt. Governor Abel Maldonado in order to face off against incumbent Democrat Congresswoman Lois Capps in the fall?

CA-30: In the battle of Dem upon Dem will incumbent Democratic Congressman Howard Berman be able to defeat his Democratic Congressional Colleague Brad Sherman in this Westside/San Fernando Valley race? Will the GOP/other candidates win sufficient votes to knock one of them off the November ballot?

CA-31: In a GOP Vs. GOP race will Congressman Gary Miller prevail against Republican State Senator and former GOP Senate leader Bob Dutton? Whoever wins will face a rough race in November in this leans Democratic district.

CA-25: Rep. Howard “Buck” McKeon dodged a contested race when Rep. Elton Gallegly retired. But, will the Armed Services Committee Chairman McKeon be harmed by trying to hijack a California Assembly seat for his wife, Patricia?

United States Senate:

Does anyone REALLY think that long-time Democratic U.S. Senator Dianne Feinstein won’t be the top vote getter tonight? But, who will she face?

Di Fi has over twenty opponents, including the following to watch: Elizabeth Emken who won the coveted California GOP endorsement, Dan Hughes, Al Ramirez and dentist/lawyer/birther Orly Taitz.

San Diego Mayor:

Republican Councilman Carl DeMaio is said to be leading in the polls and Democrat Congressman Bob Filner is said to be in second. But, former Republican California Assemblyman Nathan Fletcher who switched parties mid-race is hoping to upset Filner? Will enough independent voters come to save his political career? How will San Diego District Attorney Bonnie Dumanis fair in the mix?

California State Assembly:

AD-44: This is my home assembly district and incumbent Republican Jeff Gorell will have an easy time in this GOP district. But, will his margin be eroded because he was in Afghanistan this past year? Or, will it be enhanced?

AD-48: A safe Democratic seat but incumbent Democratic Assemblyman Roger Hernandez was arrested for a DUI a few weeks ago. How will this play in this heavily Latino district?

AD-38: My friend and Community College Trustee Scott Wilk is running in a four-way race with two other Republicans, who include Rep. Buck McKeon’s wife, Patricia. Who will be in the top two in this safe Republican district? Will a run-off be between Wilk and McKeon in November?

AD-66: My high school friend and conservative businessman Craig Huey is in a three-way race with a moderate Republican Nathan Mintz and a solid Democrat. Will Huey who challenged (and lost) Rep. Janice Hahn in a special election Congressional race in 2011 be able to pull out a top two win and face Torrance school board member and prosecutor Al Muratsuchi? The seat will be heavily contested in November.

California State Senate:

SD-19: In this heavily Democratic registration Senate District we have far-left Hannah-Beth Taxin’ Jackson vs. moderate Democrat fireman Jason Hodge. Republican Mike Stoker is waiting to see who falls over in this Dem on Dem fight. Will Stoker be able to pick up the pieces and wage a general election race against Taxin’ Jackson?

SD-27: Whatever the result tonight, Republican Todd Zink will face off against incumbent California state Senator Fran Pavley in November. There are only two candidates running. This is my home California State Senate district being vacated by Tony Strickland and the only result pundits want to see is by how much Pavley wins. If she wins small, this may persuade the special interests to send a little campaign cash to LA County Prosecutor Zink for November

California Proposition 28:

.This measure changes term limits, but are voters in a YES mode to change things?

California Proposition 29:

This is the tobacco tax measure and since less than 20 per cent of Californians smoke, it doesn’t really affect as many voters. But, will Californians be in a taxin’ mood?

These are some of the races, I will be watching closely tonight.

For full coverage and comments as the returns come in throughout the night, watch my Twitter feed and follow @Flap.

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