Category: Polling

Sep 10 2012

PPIC: “Just the Facts” – Rise of the California Independents

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Public Policy Institute of California Logo

The Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) is out with its “Just the Facts” report on the California electorate.

There are some interesting facts about the California voting electorate and political parties.

Some are:

The share of independent voters continues to increase

  • In Total there are 17.2 million California voters—72.3% of eligible adults
  • Democrats numbered 7.4 million (43.4%)
  • Republicans numbered 5.2 million (30.2%)
  • Independent (also known as “decline to state” or “no party preference”) continues to rise: it is now at 21.3% (3.7 million voters), up from 19.4% (3.1 million) in 2008
  • Most likely to vote, 44% are Democrats, 35% are Republicans, and 18% are independents.

California’s top two voting system should support more “independent’ voters since there is really no reason to register one way or another, unless you want to run for partisan office.

Gone are the day of the partisan California June primary elections in “safe” gerrymandered by party legislative and congressional districts.

There are more interesting facts in the report and will revisit them on another post.

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Aug 16 2012

CBRT Pepperdine Poll Watch: The November California Propositions

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A new poll from the California Business Roundtable and Pepperdine University has been released:

The California Business Roundtableand Pepperdine University School of Public Policy today released the third round of results in their bi-monthly initiative survey series leading up to the November election. This week’s survey shows Proposition 38 receiving a majority of support for the first time and continued strong support for Proposition 39. The survey also found continued support for Propositions 30, 32 and 37.

The entire poll is here.

Here is a summary:

Proposition 30 – TEMPORARY TAXES TO FUND EDUCATION. GUARANTEED LOCAL PUBLIC SAFETY FUNDING. INITIATIVE CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENT.

YES: 56.7

NO: 37.3

Proposition 31 – STATE BUDGET. STATE AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT. INITIATIVE CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENT AND STATUTE.

YES: 38.3

NO: 32.9

Proposition 32 – POLITICAL CONTRIBUTIONS BY PAYROLL DEDUCTION. CONTRIBUTIONS TO CANDIDATES. INITIATIVE STATUTE.

YES: 55.2

NO: 33.6

Proposition 33 – AUTO INSURANCE COMPANIES. PRICES BASED ON DRIVER’S HISTORY OF INSURANCE COVERAGE. INITIATIVE STATUTE.

YES: 56.6

NO: 29.2

Proposition 34 – DEATH PENALTY. INITIATIVE STATUTE.

YES: 38.2

NO: 52.2

Proposition 35 – HUMAN TRAFFICKING. PENALTIES. INITIATIVE STATUTE.

YES: 86.6

NO: 6.4

Proposition 36 – THREE STRIKES LAW. REPEAT FELONY OFFENDERS. PENALTIES. INITIATIVE STATUTE.

YES: 78.1

NO: 13.3

Proposition 37 – GENETICALLY ENGINEERED FOODS. LABELING. INITIATIVE STATUTE.

YES: 65.0

NO: 21.8

Proposition 38 – TAX TO FUND EDUCATION AND EARLY CHILDHOOD PROGRAMS. INITIATIVE STATUTE.

YES: 45.3

NO: 41.9

Proposition 39 – TAX TREATMENT FOR MULTISTATE BUSINESSES. CLEAN ENERGY AND ENERGY EFFICIENCY FUNDING. INITIATIVE STATUTE.

YES: 57.2

NO: 26.6

Proposition 40 – REDISTRICTING. STATE SENATE DISTRICTS. REFERENDUM.

YES: 44.5

NO: 18.9

I am surprised that both tax measures (Jerry Brown’s and Molly Munger’s) are winning approval.

If Californians really think that another round of tax increases will really help the economy, I have a bridge to sell them.

The public employee unions must now be worried about losing their funding sources, re: Proposition 32 winning by over 20 points.

I am pleased that the anti-Death Penalty initiative is failing. But, then again, I cannot ever conceive of California not having the ability to execute its most infamous murderers.

The Three Strikes initiative is probably misunderstood and some strategic campaigning may have to be done to defeat it.

Stay tuned as Labor Day approaches.

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May 30 2012

LA Times/USC Dornsife Poll: May 17 – 21, 2012

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The poll is here.

Here is a summary from Scott Lay at the Nooner:

  • Compromise tax measure, with governor’s case: 59% Yes [38% Strongly/21% Somewhat], 38% No [21% Strongly, 10% Somewhat]
  • Governor job approval-disapproval: 49-39%
  • Obama-Romney: 56-37%
  • Legalize online poker (“200m for state budget)?: 42% Support, 44% Oppose

I don’t know about the sampling here with Californians supporting a small tax increase AND not approving online poker to raise some revenue.

In any case, it looks like Jerry Brown’s tax measure is in decent shape – at least until Munger’s initiative should qualify and then voters may be confused and say no to both.

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May 24 2012

The PPIC Poll for May 2012

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California State Capitol

The Public Policy Institute of California poll (PPIC) was taken from May 14 through May 20, 2012.

Here is a summary:

  • CA Right direction/wrong direction: 30-63%
  • Gov Brown job approval (Approve/Disapprove/DK): 39-36-24%
  • Budget solution through (Spending cuts/Tax increases/Mix/Debt): 35-13-44-2% (likely voters)
  • Gov’s compromise tax measure (Yes/No/DK): 56-38-7% (likely voters)
  • Prop. 28 (term limits): 62-29%
  • Prop. 29 (tobacco tax): 53-42%
  • Barack Obama (Fav/Unfav/DK): 52-45-4% (likely voters)
  • Mitt Romney (Fav/Unfav/DK): 40-52-9% (likely voters)
  • Gay marriage: 56-37% (likely voters)

A quick review will show the deep blue nature of the state, including President Obama commanding a large lead in the 2012 Presidential race.

Democrat Governor Jerry Brown does not poll as well having a net disapproval rating.

No real surprises here in this heavily democratic state, except that the California Proposition 29 smokers tax increase margin in favor has dramatically cratered under the weight of tobacco company media buys.

The entire poll is here.

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Mar 08 2012

Poll Watch: California Governor Jerry Brown’s Tax Increase Proposal in Trouble

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California Governor Jerry Brown addressing the California Democratic Party in San Diego last month

Jerry Brown’s tax increase measure for the November ballot is not polling well.

Even though most Californians think the budget remains a big problem, just a slim majority of likely voters say they support Gov. Jerry Brown’s proposed tax initiative for the November ballot, according to a survey released Wednesday by the Public Policy Institute of California.

Using the Democratic governor’s ballot title and summary for the first time, the poll found 52 percent of likely voters support temporarily raising the state sales tax and income tax on high-wage earners while 40 percent oppose doing so. Another 8 percent said they are undecided. That’s a drop from past surveys, which found majority support for his plan to temporarily raise taxes. PPIC found Brown’s proposal had 68 percent support in January, before the ballot language was finished.

Brown estimated that California faces a $9.2 billion deficit in the 2012-2013 fiscal year, which begins July 1, and has called for closing that shortfall with a near equal balance of spending cuts and the temporary tax increases he wants voters to approve in November. Most of the additional revenue from his tax initiative would go to K-12 education.

“A slim majority support Gov. Brown’s proposed tax initiative,” said Mark Baldassare, president and CEO of the Public Policy Institute. “Of those who plan to vote against it, most also say that their local governments have been affected a lot by recent state budget cuts and they would prefer to deal with the gap mainly through spending cuts.”

As I have said before, many of my friends in the Democratic stronghold of Los Angeles County feel the State of California must manage their tax money better and are leery of ANY tax increases. They say that all POLS claim an increase in taxes is temporary and then never repealed.

Also, the California economy is not well and people simply just don’t have the money to be spent on prisons and social welfare programs.

In many ways, California taxpayers are tired of being lied to and are tapped out. There is tax increase fatigue.

Brown’s measure may eek out a small victory in November, but with President Obama easily winning the popular vote some likely voters for this measure may never make it to the polls to vote.

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