Tag Archive: California Election 2012

Aug 16 2012

CBRT Pepperdine Poll Watch: The November California Propositions

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A new poll from the California Business Roundtable and Pepperdine University has been released:

The California Business Roundtableand Pepperdine University School of Public Policy today released the third round of results in their bi-monthly initiative survey series leading up to the November election. This week’s survey shows Proposition 38 receiving a majority of support for the first time and continued strong support for Proposition 39. The survey also found continued support for Propositions 30, 32 and 37.

The entire poll is here.

Here is a summary:

Proposition 30 – TEMPORARY TAXES TO FUND EDUCATION. GUARANTEED LOCAL PUBLIC SAFETY FUNDING. INITIATIVE CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENT.

YES: 56.7

NO: 37.3

Proposition 31 – STATE BUDGET. STATE AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT. INITIATIVE CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENT AND STATUTE.

YES: 38.3

NO: 32.9

Proposition 32 – POLITICAL CONTRIBUTIONS BY PAYROLL DEDUCTION. CONTRIBUTIONS TO CANDIDATES. INITIATIVE STATUTE.

YES: 55.2

NO: 33.6

Proposition 33 – AUTO INSURANCE COMPANIES. PRICES BASED ON DRIVER’S HISTORY OF INSURANCE COVERAGE. INITIATIVE STATUTE.

YES: 56.6

NO: 29.2

Proposition 34 – DEATH PENALTY. INITIATIVE STATUTE.

YES: 38.2

NO: 52.2

Proposition 35 – HUMAN TRAFFICKING. PENALTIES. INITIATIVE STATUTE.

YES: 86.6

NO: 6.4

Proposition 36 – THREE STRIKES LAW. REPEAT FELONY OFFENDERS. PENALTIES. INITIATIVE STATUTE.

YES: 78.1

NO: 13.3

Proposition 37 – GENETICALLY ENGINEERED FOODS. LABELING. INITIATIVE STATUTE.

YES: 65.0

NO: 21.8

Proposition 38 – TAX TO FUND EDUCATION AND EARLY CHILDHOOD PROGRAMS. INITIATIVE STATUTE.

YES: 45.3

NO: 41.9

Proposition 39 – TAX TREATMENT FOR MULTISTATE BUSINESSES. CLEAN ENERGY AND ENERGY EFFICIENCY FUNDING. INITIATIVE STATUTE.

YES: 57.2

NO: 26.6

Proposition 40 – REDISTRICTING. STATE SENATE DISTRICTS. REFERENDUM.

YES: 44.5

NO: 18.9

I am surprised that both tax measures (Jerry Brown’s and Molly Munger’s) are winning approval.

If Californians really think that another round of tax increases will really help the economy, I have a bridge to sell them.

The public employee unions must now be worried about losing their funding sources, re: Proposition 32 winning by over 20 points.

I am pleased that the anti-Death Penalty initiative is failing. But, then again, I cannot ever conceive of California not having the ability to execute its most infamous murderers.

The Three Strikes initiative is probably misunderstood and some strategic campaigning may have to be done to defeat it.

Stay tuned as Labor Day approaches.

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Jun 05 2012

Key California Races to Watch Tonight

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Today is California Presidential Primary election day.

Here are the key California races that I will be watching tonight:

Congressional:

CA-26: Republican Tony Strickland Vs. No Party Preference Linda Parks Vs. Democrat Julia Brownley and three other Democrats. This race will test the new top two election susytem in California. Will Linda Parks be able to knock out Julia Brownley from second place in this marginally Democratic registration Congressional district. In any event, this will be a an intensely fought race in November between winning candidates tonight.

CA-24: Will conservative Republican Chris Mitchum be able to knock off Republican and former Lt. Governor Abel Maldonado in order to face off against incumbent Democrat Congresswoman Lois Capps in the fall?

CA-30: In the battle of Dem upon Dem will incumbent Democratic Congressman Howard Berman be able to defeat his Democratic Congressional Colleague Brad Sherman in this Westside/San Fernando Valley race? Will the GOP/other candidates win sufficient votes to knock one of them off the November ballot?

CA-31: In a GOP Vs. GOP race will Congressman Gary Miller prevail against Republican State Senator and former GOP Senate leader Bob Dutton? Whoever wins will face a rough race in November in this leans Democratic district.

CA-25: Rep. Howard “Buck” McKeon dodged a contested race when Rep. Elton Gallegly retired. But, will the Armed Services Committee Chairman McKeon be harmed by trying to hijack a California Assembly seat for his wife, Patricia?

United States Senate:

Does anyone REALLY think that long-time Democratic U.S. Senator Dianne Feinstein won’t be the top vote getter tonight? But, who will she face?

Di Fi has over twenty opponents, including the following to watch: Elizabeth Emken who won the coveted California GOP endorsement, Dan Hughes, Al Ramirez and dentist/lawyer/birther Orly Taitz.

San Diego Mayor:

Republican Councilman Carl DeMaio is said to be leading in the polls and Democrat Congressman Bob Filner is said to be in second. But, former Republican California Assemblyman Nathan Fletcher who switched parties mid-race is hoping to upset Filner? Will enough independent voters come to save his political career? How will San Diego District Attorney Bonnie Dumanis fair in the mix?

California State Assembly:

AD-44: This is my home assembly district and incumbent Republican Jeff Gorell will have an easy time in this GOP district. But, will his margin be eroded because he was in Afghanistan this past year? Or, will it be enhanced?

AD-48: A safe Democratic seat but incumbent Democratic Assemblyman Roger Hernandez was arrested for a DUI a few weeks ago. How will this play in this heavily Latino district?

AD-38: My friend and Community College Trustee Scott Wilk is running in a four-way race with two other Republicans, who include Rep. Buck McKeon’s wife, Patricia. Who will be in the top two in this safe Republican district? Will a run-off be between Wilk and McKeon in November?

AD-66: My high school friend and conservative businessman Craig Huey is in a three-way race with a moderate Republican Nathan Mintz and a solid Democrat. Will Huey who challenged (and lost) Rep. Janice Hahn in a special election Congressional race in 2011 be able to pull out a top two win and face Torrance school board member and prosecutor Al Muratsuchi? The seat will be heavily contested in November.

California State Senate:

SD-19: In this heavily Democratic registration Senate District we have far-left Hannah-Beth Taxin’ Jackson vs. moderate Democrat fireman Jason Hodge. Republican Mike Stoker is waiting to see who falls over in this Dem on Dem fight. Will Stoker be able to pick up the pieces and wage a general election race against Taxin’ Jackson?

SD-27: Whatever the result tonight, Republican Todd Zink will face off against incumbent California state Senator Fran Pavley in November. There are only two candidates running. This is my home California State Senate district being vacated by Tony Strickland and the only result pundits want to see is by how much Pavley wins. If she wins small, this may persuade the special interests to send a little campaign cash to LA County Prosecutor Zink for November

California Proposition 28:

.This measure changes term limits, but are voters in a YES mode to change things?

California Proposition 29:

This is the tobacco tax measure and since less than 20 per cent of Californians smoke, it doesn’t really affect as many voters. But, will Californians be in a taxin’ mood?

These are some of the races, I will be watching closely tonight.

For full coverage and comments as the returns come in throughout the night, watch my Twitter feed and follow @Flap.

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Sep 06 2011

California Poll Watch: 3 in 4 Say America is on the Wrong Track

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Dan Schnur, director of the Jesse M. Unruh Institute of Politics, Shane Goldmacher, reporter with the Los Angeles Times Sacramento Bureau and Manuel Pastor, professor of American Studies and Ethnicity discuss how Californians feel about our current economy

According to the latest USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times Poll.

California voters are increasingly downcast about the direction of the country, but — like their leaders in Washington — many would rather adhere to party orthodoxy than compromise to address the current economic problems, a new USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times poll shows.

The findings offer little guidance for President Obama, who will unveil a jobs package this week that he hopes to push through a polarized Congress. Further troubling for the president: The survey results suggest that Republicans, even in deep-blue California, are winning the rhetorical war of words over how to frame the country’s economic troubles, and how to get out of them.

Although Obama has previously called for strategic government investments to stimulate the economy, only 37% of California voters said they favor such an approach. Instead, the Republican view — that slashing government spending to restrain the deficit will better lead to prosperity — was preferred by 49% of respondents, according to the survey sponsored by the USC Dornsife College of Letters, Arts and Sciences and The Times.

“The argument of ‘We need to cut the size of government, we need to reduce the deficit’ has won, even in California,” said David Kanevsky, research director for American Viewpoint, a Republican firm that co-directed the bipartisan poll. “Stimulus is almost a four-letter word here.”

With California unemployment mired at 12%, the electorate is clearly dissatisfied with the status quo. Nearly 3 in 4 voters say the country is on the wrong track, up sharply from the 55% who felt that way in November 2009.

“We’re going to hell in a handbasket, what can I say,” said Esther Morales, 68, a Republican poll respondent who lives in a retirement community in Indio. She scoffed at the term “retirement,” however, pointing out that most of her neighbors still have to work odd jobs to make ends meet: “We’re on the fast track to nowhere.”

The fast track to nowhere is correct. Most Californians I know are extremely disgruntled, yet support Obama – at least for now.

However, if this unhappiness, particularly about business and the economy continues, and Obama sinks further in California Polls look for a HUGE GOP Presidential landslide in November 2012.

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Aug 29 2011

Flap’s California Afternoon Collection: August 29, 2011

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Sequoia National Park

An afternoon collection of links and comments about my home, California.

New Audacious Effort To Eliminate Ballot Initiatives From June Statewide Elections?

But as signature gathering wraps up for the Stop Special Interests Now effort, I had caught wind of a new effort taking place (right now) behind closed doors in the State Capitol to try and thwart this important ballot measure.  When you read this, you may not choose to believe it.  Because this power-play is so audacious that it will make your head spin.

As you know, since the beginning of time, California has had two statewide elections every even numbered year – the “election year” as it is called.  Of course this is augmented periodically by special elections as well.  When an initiative is qualified for the ballot, it appears on the ballot in the next statewide election.  This means that if the Stop Special Interests Now campaign turns in their signatures relatively soon, and they turn in enough, the initiative would appear on the upcoming June statewide ballot.

Or would it?

The State Constitution specifically provides in Article II, Section 8(c) that, “The Secretary of State shall then submit the measure at the next general election held at least 131 days after it qualifies or at any special statewide election held prior to that general election.  The Governor may call a special statewide election for the measure.”

Apparently there are some who are advocating the tossing of over a hundred years of election tradition out the window, and to pass a law that would amend the elections code and state that the June primary is neither a “general election” nor a “special statewide election” – and thus in doing so hope to actually prevent (presumably henceforth) any ballot measure from being placed on the June ballot.  Pretty audacious, don’t you think?

Hot Rumor: Labor Scheme to Push Initiatives to Nov.

Calbuzz has picked up rumblings that California union leaders, their consultants and loyal Democratic retainers are quietly planning to jam a bill through the Legislature before the end of the session that would push onto the November ballot any initiatives that have or would otherwise qualify for the June election.

The idea is to guarantee that measures like “paycheck protection,” which would ban use of automatically deducted union dues for political purposes; “reforms” that would slash public-employee pensions to 60%; a requirement for secret ballots to determine union representation; or mandatory state spending limits all would face a November – that is, a larger and more Democratic – electorate, rather than a smaller, more conservative June electorate (when Republicans may have a competitive presidential primary and Democrats won’t.)

We stipulate that we have no on-the-record sources. What we have is pieced together from speculation circulating about such a maneuver, or sources aware of some of the closed-door discussions now under way among labor leaders and perhaps a legislator or two. Also from a close reading of the California Constitution and Elections Code.

California Legislature sprinting to the finish line

The Legislature begins its sprint to adjournment with hundreds of bills still pending, with lawmakers maneuvering for positions to campaign on in much-changed districts next year, with lobbyists for moneyed interests packing Capitol hallways, and with dozens of fundraising events on tap to extract campaign cash from those interests.

It’s a yeasty mélange for the final two weeks, to say the least.

We know what the big conflicts – which all involve money – are likely to be. The biggest may be over a bill that would impose rate regulation on the multibillion-dollar health insurance industry, a full-employment act for lobbyists if there ever was one.

Insurance Commissioner Dave Jones and consumer activists want Assembly Bill 52 to, they say, protect Californians from being gouged.

But the industry has some heavyweight allies, including state and local government agencies that purchase health insurance for their employees and perhaps Gov. Jerry Brown’s administration, which questions its potential costs.

AB 52 was one of the more than two dozen measures labeled “job killers” by the California Chamber of Commerce. But as the session winds down, three-quarters of them have died, leaving AB 52 and six others still alive.

One high-profile “job killer” that stalled was Senate Bill 432, which would have required hotels to use fitted bedsheets.

The union-backed bill was sidetracked last week in the Assembly Appropriations Committee for reasons that had nothing to do with its merits and everything to do with a nasty squabble over another high-profile bill that would disincorporate the city of Vernon, a tiny industrial enclave near downtown Los Angeles.

Green light for Gorell

Before leaving this spring for a 12-month military deployment in Afghanistan, Assemblyman Jeff Gorell told me he had put together a “three-part plan” to make it possible for him to become a candidate for re-election next year.

Option A — the one that creates the least stress and hassle for Gorell — is now available, thanks to an act of the Legislature.

Here was the problem: Gorell will not return from active duty until after the early March deadline for candidates to file for office in 2012 has passed. Under current law, only the candidate can submit the completed paperwork to county elections officials. Had that law not changed, Gorell would have been forced to either use his one personal leave to return to California to file the paperwork, or would have had to fly a notary public notarized in California to Afghanistan to he could have his signature on the papers notarized.

Effective Jan. 1, there will be an easier option, thanks to a new law signed by Gov. Jerry Brown this summer. The law allows perspective candidates who are are deployed on active military service outside the state to grant limited power of attorney to another party to file their candidate papers.

Enjoy your afternoon!

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