Tag Archive: Polling

Jan 31 2013

The California Flap: January 31, 2013

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The California Legislature is in session.

Today’s schedule is here.

The California Assembly’s Daily File is here and the California State Senate’s is here.

An important deadline to remember:

  • February 22, 2013: Deadline to introduce bills.

Each member of the Assembly and State Senate are allowed to introduce up to 40 bills in this two year legislative session.

Around the Capitol today:

Lawmakers are holding a press conference pledging their support for a federal immigration overhaul. Assemblyman Luis Alejo, D-Watsonville, will be joined by Sen. Anthony Cannella, R-Ceres; Sen. Ricardo Lara, D-Bell Gardens; Assemblyman V. Manuel Pérez, D-Coachella; Assemblyman Katcho Achadjian, R-San Luis Obispo; Assemblyman Roger Dickinson, D-Sacramento; and Assemblyman Jeff Gorell, R-Camarillo. Starting at 10:30 a.m. in room 317 of the State Capitol.

On to the morning’s California headlines:

  • Controversial school bonds create ‘debt for the next generation’ – The Napa Valley Unified School District had a quandary: The district needed a new high school in American Canyon, but taxpayers appeared unwilling to take the financial hit required to build it.So in 2009, the district took out an unusual loan – $22 million with no payments due for 21 years. By 2049, when the debt is paid, it will have cost taxpayers $154 million – seven times the amount borrowed.School board member Jose Hurtado said he stands by the deal. But if it were a mortgage, he acknowledged, “we would run.”Napa is one of at least 1,350 school districts and government agencies across the nation that have turned to a controversial form of borrowing called capital appreciation bonds to finance major projects, a California Watch analysis shows. Relying on these bonds has allowed districts to borrow billions of dollars while postponing payments in some cases for decades.
  • California taxes surge in January, report says – California was flooded with tax dollars in January, according to a new report, and the state received $5 billion more revenue this month than Gov. Jerry Brown had anticipated.The Wednesday report from the Legislative Analyst’s Office shows a stark reversal for the state budget. At the end of November, tax revenue had fallen almost $1 billion short in the current fiscal year, according to figures from Brown’s Department of Finance.Now the state appears to be $5 billion ahead, which could provide further evidence for the governor’s declaration that California has emerged from its financial crisis.The analyst’s office floated three possible causes for the surge in tax revenue. The most positive theory is also the simplest — the economy has improved and there’s more income to tax.The others are less optimistic. It’s possible that wealthy residents, fearful that federal budget negotiations would increase their taxes, decided to cash out investments early. If so, that means the s…
  • PPIC Poll: Californians fear shootings, support citizenship – A new statewide poll finds Californians fearful of mass shootings and strongly in favor of more gun control, while also supporting a path to citizenship for illegal immigrants.The poll from the Public Policy Institute of California released Wednesday night also finds more optimism about the state’s economy than at anytime since 2007.”Still,” says PPIC pollster and president Mark Baldassare, “many Californians are expressing concerns about the direction of the economy and the state budget situation.”But it’s the California reaction to recent news headlines that offers an early view on what could become potent political issues during the 2013 legislative season in Sacramento and next year’s statewide elections.65 percent of those polled say the government is not doing enough to regulate access to guns, and an equal number support a nationwide ban on semi-automatic style assault weapons.
  • PPIC Poll: Californians upbeat over future, budget plan – Californians are more optimistic about the future of the state than at any time since before the recession and are giving high marks to Gov. Jerry Brown’s budgeting approach after voters approved higher taxes to help balance the state budget, according to a poll released Wednesday.The Democratic governor’s job approval rating reached a record high 51 percent in the latest poll by the Public Policy Institute of California, with even a slim majority of Republicans giving a thumbs-up to his recent budget proposal.The poll also found broad support for increased gun controls and changes to current immigration laws that would allow a path to citizenship. A majority support the federal health care overhaul that already is under way in California.The percentage of adults who said the state is headed in the right direction was 51 percent, the first time a majority of people said that since January 2007.
  • For millionaire athletes, states with highest tax rates may not make the cut – Is Lefty’s stance on California’s tax hikes a sign of things to come for millionaire athletes?The Golden State’s new 13.3 percent income tax on top earners prompted golfer Phil Mickelson to say earlier this month he was considering a move, and according to the accountants who advise millionaire athletes, he was just saying what a lot of jocks were already thinking. Federal taxes on the top income bracket just rose by roughly 5 percent, and, while there’s nothing rich athletes can do about that, they are paying attention to which states dip into their game checks — and how much they take.“They’re going to have an exodus of people,” said John Karaffa, president of ProSport CPA, a Virginia-based firm that represents nearly 300 professional athletes, primarily in basketball and football. “I think they’ll see some [leave California] for sure. They were already a very high tax state and it’s getting to a point where folks have to make a business decision as well as a lifestyle decision.”
  • Legislation proposed to help California launch healthcare overhaul – The state Legislature gaveled in a special session on healthcare Monday, pushing forward with sweeping proposals to help California implement President Obama’s healthcare overhaul.The measures, including a major expansion of Medi-Cal, the state’s public insurance program for the poor, would cement the state’s status as the nation’s earliest and most aggressive adopter of the federal Affordable Care Act. Beginning in January 2014, the law requires most Americans to buy health insurance or pay a penalty.Gov. Jerry Brown called the special session so healthcare bills that he signs can take effect within 90 days rather than next year.
  • Counties express concerns about Medi-Cal expansion – As state lawmakers propose a major expansion of Medi-Cal to help California implement President Obama’s healthcare overhaul, county officials are raising concerns that the proposal could siphon critical dollars from their safety-net programs.On Monday, legislative leaders in both houses sponsored bills that would dramatically expand the state’s public insurance program. Under the proposals, individuals earning up to 138% of the federal poverty level — or $15,415 a year — would be covered, potentially adding more than 1 million Californians to the Medi-Cal rolls.The federal government would subsidize costs for the first three years, phasing down to 90% afterward.Currently, counties receive state funding to care for the uninsured. But Gov. Jerry Brown has said that if the state were to administer the Medi-Cal expansion it may reduce the roughly $2 billion it gives to counties each year to cover the new costs. In his proposed budget, the governor said the state might also shift…
  • State ordered to pay back districts $1 billion for 20-year-old mandate – A state commission has ruled that the state must reimburse school districts about $1 billion in mandated special education costs dating back 20 years. But like many protracted mandate cases, the victory is largely one of principle. Gov. Jerry Brown is proposing to include a small payback in next year’s budget, and the dollars will come from funding within Proposition 98, so it will essentially involve shifting education dollars around.The unreimbursed expenses are for intervention plans for special education students identified with behavior problems. In the early 1990s the State Board of Education, under orders from the Legislature, prescribed interventions that teachers should incorporate into individual education plans, known as IEPs, according to Paul Golaszewski, an analyst with the Legislative Analyst’s Office who has followed the case.
  • L.A. Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, again, cast as possible transportation secretary – L.A. Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, again, cast as possible transportation secretaryThe departure of U.S. Transportation Secretary Ray LaHood raised new questions over what Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa would do if he is offered the job – either now or after July 1, when his term as mayor expires. | Also: Doug McIntyre on the mayor’s next moveVillaraigosa was in South Korea for the Special Olympics and is not expected to return until Thursday.
  • Phil Mickelson’s net state income tax increase: 83.6%!!!!! – Richard Rider, the dean of the small-government/low-tax movement in San Diego County, has come up with some stunning number-crunching on his blog:“Here’s the fact that EVERYONE (including me) initially undervalued concerning [Rancho Santa Fe pro golfer Phil] Mickelson and CA state income taxes. Starting in 2013, Mickelson’s NET state income tax has jumped 83.6%! And yes, this huge increase hits most Californians making more than $2 million income.“Here’s why. Until 2013, state income taxes were deductible for federalincome tax purposes. Starting in 2013, for the really rich, this deductibility largely goes away (as does deducting property taxes and many other deductions). For people with over $2 million of income, they lose 80% of such deductions.“With Proposition 30 passed in November, CA has raised its income tax on the wealthy by 29%. The combined tax increase is breathtaking. Do the math, and you find that in 2011 the net CA income tax for Mickelson was 6.7% In 2013 his net CA income tax is 12.3% — an increase of 83.6%.”This is mind-boggling. No wonder Phil said he was contemplating “drastic changes.”
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Sep 10 2012

PPIC: “Just the Facts” – Rise of the California Independents

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Public Policy Institute of California Logo

The Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) is out with its “Just the Facts” report on the California electorate.

There are some interesting facts about the California voting electorate and political parties.

Some are:

The share of independent voters continues to increase

  • In Total there are 17.2 million California voters—72.3% of eligible adults
  • Democrats numbered 7.4 million (43.4%)
  • Republicans numbered 5.2 million (30.2%)
  • Independent (also known as “decline to state” or “no party preference”) continues to rise: it is now at 21.3% (3.7 million voters), up from 19.4% (3.1 million) in 2008
  • Most likely to vote, 44% are Democrats, 35% are Republicans, and 18% are independents.

California’s top two voting system should support more “independent’ voters since there is really no reason to register one way or another, unless you want to run for partisan office.

Gone are the day of the partisan California June primary elections in “safe” gerrymandered by party legislative and congressional districts.

There are more interesting facts in the report and will revisit them on another post.

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Aug 16 2012

CBRT Pepperdine Poll Watch: The November California Propositions

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A new poll from the California Business Roundtable and Pepperdine University has been released:

The California Business Roundtableand Pepperdine University School of Public Policy today released the third round of results in their bi-monthly initiative survey series leading up to the November election. This week’s survey shows Proposition 38 receiving a majority of support for the first time and continued strong support for Proposition 39. The survey also found continued support for Propositions 30, 32 and 37.

The entire poll is here.

Here is a summary:

Proposition 30 – TEMPORARY TAXES TO FUND EDUCATION. GUARANTEED LOCAL PUBLIC SAFETY FUNDING. INITIATIVE CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENT.

YES: 56.7

NO: 37.3

Proposition 31 – STATE BUDGET. STATE AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT. INITIATIVE CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENT AND STATUTE.

YES: 38.3

NO: 32.9

Proposition 32 – POLITICAL CONTRIBUTIONS BY PAYROLL DEDUCTION. CONTRIBUTIONS TO CANDIDATES. INITIATIVE STATUTE.

YES: 55.2

NO: 33.6

Proposition 33 – AUTO INSURANCE COMPANIES. PRICES BASED ON DRIVER’S HISTORY OF INSURANCE COVERAGE. INITIATIVE STATUTE.

YES: 56.6

NO: 29.2

Proposition 34 – DEATH PENALTY. INITIATIVE STATUTE.

YES: 38.2

NO: 52.2

Proposition 35 – HUMAN TRAFFICKING. PENALTIES. INITIATIVE STATUTE.

YES: 86.6

NO: 6.4

Proposition 36 – THREE STRIKES LAW. REPEAT FELONY OFFENDERS. PENALTIES. INITIATIVE STATUTE.

YES: 78.1

NO: 13.3

Proposition 37 – GENETICALLY ENGINEERED FOODS. LABELING. INITIATIVE STATUTE.

YES: 65.0

NO: 21.8

Proposition 38 – TAX TO FUND EDUCATION AND EARLY CHILDHOOD PROGRAMS. INITIATIVE STATUTE.

YES: 45.3

NO: 41.9

Proposition 39 – TAX TREATMENT FOR MULTISTATE BUSINESSES. CLEAN ENERGY AND ENERGY EFFICIENCY FUNDING. INITIATIVE STATUTE.

YES: 57.2

NO: 26.6

Proposition 40 – REDISTRICTING. STATE SENATE DISTRICTS. REFERENDUM.

YES: 44.5

NO: 18.9

I am surprised that both tax measures (Jerry Brown’s and Molly Munger’s) are winning approval.

If Californians really think that another round of tax increases will really help the economy, I have a bridge to sell them.

The public employee unions must now be worried about losing their funding sources, re: Proposition 32 winning by over 20 points.

I am pleased that the anti-Death Penalty initiative is failing. But, then again, I cannot ever conceive of California not having the ability to execute its most infamous murderers.

The Three Strikes initiative is probably misunderstood and some strategic campaigning may have to be done to defeat it.

Stay tuned as Labor Day approaches.

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May 30 2012

LA Times/USC Dornsife Poll: May 17 – 21, 2012

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The poll is here.

Here is a summary from Scott Lay at the Nooner:

  • Compromise tax measure, with governor’s case: 59% Yes [38% Strongly/21% Somewhat], 38% No [21% Strongly, 10% Somewhat]
  • Governor job approval-disapproval: 49-39%
  • Obama-Romney: 56-37%
  • Legalize online poker (“200m for state budget)?: 42% Support, 44% Oppose

I don’t know about the sampling here with Californians supporting a small tax increase AND not approving online poker to raise some revenue.

In any case, it looks like Jerry Brown’s tax measure is in decent shape – at least until Munger’s initiative should qualify and then voters may be confused and say no to both.

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May 24 2012

The PPIC Poll for May 2012

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California State Capitol

The Public Policy Institute of California poll (PPIC) was taken from May 14 through May 20, 2012.

Here is a summary:

  • CA Right direction/wrong direction: 30-63%
  • Gov Brown job approval (Approve/Disapprove/DK): 39-36-24%
  • Budget solution through (Spending cuts/Tax increases/Mix/Debt): 35-13-44-2% (likely voters)
  • Gov’s compromise tax measure (Yes/No/DK): 56-38-7% (likely voters)
  • Prop. 28 (term limits): 62-29%
  • Prop. 29 (tobacco tax): 53-42%
  • Barack Obama (Fav/Unfav/DK): 52-45-4% (likely voters)
  • Mitt Romney (Fav/Unfav/DK): 40-52-9% (likely voters)
  • Gay marriage: 56-37% (likely voters)

A quick review will show the deep blue nature of the state, including President Obama commanding a large lead in the 2012 Presidential race.

Democrat Governor Jerry Brown does not poll as well having a net disapproval rating.

No real surprises here in this heavily democratic state, except that the California Proposition 29 smokers tax increase margin in favor has dramatically cratered under the weight of tobacco company media buys.

The entire poll is here.

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