Jan 30 2012

SD-19 Poll Watch: Mike Stoker Beating Hannah-Beth Jackson in Jason Hodge Sponsored Poll


The newly redistricted California State Senate District 19

Scott Lay over at Around the Capital has this Nooner poll result.

A polling memo on SD19 conducted by Garin-Hart-Yang for Jason Hodge made the rounds this weekend. While it suspiciously doesn’t include wording and other critical details, the headline is that either Hodge or Hannah-Beth Jackson could have trouble beating former Santa Barbara supervisor Mike Stoker (R). Here are the general election matchups:

Stoker  47%
Jackson  42%

Stoker  42%
Hodge  41%

Hodge 39%
Jackson 35%

Whoa? This is a seat that Obama won by 23 points and Brown won by 6.2%. (emphasis mine)

This poll by Hodge’s campaign pollsters is an outlier if I have ever seen one. Or, it is just a fabrication.

In the three way June primary election it splits this way:

  • Hodge 30%
  • Stoker 30%
  • Jackson 24%

I understand that a run by Mike Stoker is not even a certainty, since his polling shows him in a futile race against either of the two Democrats in the general. This district is a tough race for any Republican in the general election.

This poll is an attempt by Oxnard Firefighter Jason Hodge to influence Sacramento money follks to fund his campaign against Hannah-Beth Taxin’ Jackson who has a firm Democratic base of support in Lefty Santa Barbara.

And, what about, if Senator Fran Pavley should decide to move to her Oxnard beach house?

I would say this poll is probably NOT a fair picture of the state of this race.