A polling memo on SD19 conducted by Garin-Hart-Yang for Jason Hodge made the rounds this weekend. While it suspiciously doesn’t include wording and other critical details, the headline is that either Hodge or Hannah-Beth Jackson could have trouble beating former Santa Barbara supervisor Mike Stoker (R). Here are the general election matchups:
Whoa? This is a seat that Obama won by 23 points and Brown won by 6.2%. (emphasis mine)
This poll by Hodge’s campaign pollsters is an outlier if I have ever seen one. Or, it is just a fabrication.
In the three way June primary election it splits this way:
- Hodge 30%
- Stoker 30%
- Jackson 24%
I understand that a run by Mike Stoker is not even a certainty, since his polling shows him in a futile race against either of the two Democrats in the general. This district is a tough race for any Republican in the general election.
This poll is an attempt by Oxnard Firefighter Jason Hodge to influence Sacramento money follks to fund his campaign against Hannah-Beth Taxin’ Jackson who has a firm Democratic base of support in Lefty Santa Barbara.
And, what about, if Senator Fran Pavley should decide to move to her Oxnard beach house?
I would say this poll is probably NOT a fair picture of the state of this race.