Tag: President 2012

Mar 06 2012

President 2012: Will California Make a Difference in GOP Presidential Race?

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Republican presidential candidate, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich pauses during a campaign stop at Food City on Monday, March 5, 2012, in Chattanooga, Tenn

The Sacramento Bee has interviewed two friends of mine who are also Republican activists here in California.

Today’s Super Tuesday contests won’t settle the GOP presidential nomination, yet it’s too soon to assume California’s June 5 primary will play a role in the outcome.

But depending on how delegates distribute after today’s 10 primaries or caucuses, Steve Frank, a senior California adviser to Newt Gingrich, says his candidate will make a major play for delegates in the state.

“If the delegates are as split as they appear to be, California will matter,” Frank said. He said the former speaker told him in a meeting two and a half weeks ago that he’ll stay in the race through Texas, where Gov. Rick Perry has endorsed him, and California.

“He made it clear to us that he’s staying in through Texas and California because he’s convinced those are going to be game-changers,” Frank said.

Conservative blogger Jon Fleischman isn’t as certain that anyone besides Romney has a chance. Once a Perry supporter, he’s still in “the angry stage” that he can’t find a candidate he loves.

“At some point, you shift from angry to resigned. And once you are resigned, you vote for Romney,” he said.

At this stage of the race and with Super Tuesday results still a few hours away, I would say that Newt Gingrich’s surge has passed and the California GOP Establishment will vote en masse for Mitt Romney.

California is a very large state and Romney, if need be, will run $ millions in political ads to negatively sink Gingrich. Now, if Ginrich’s Super PAC were to throw in a bunch of money, Californians might see a very expensive telelvison campaign war.

But, I doubt that Newt has the resources to successfully compete.

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Dec 01 2011

President 2012 California Poll Watch: Obama Leads Romney and Gingrich But Job Approval Lackluster

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US President Barack Obama speaks on payroll tax cuts at Scranton High School in Scranton, Pennsylvania, November 30, 2011

According to the latest California Field Poll.

Only 45% of California voters say they are inclined to have Barack Obama serve another term as President. But his reelection prospects improve greatly when he is paired against each of his two leading GOP challengers in general election match-ups. Obama now leads Mitt Romney by ten points (50% to 40%) and holds a more commanding twenty-point lead over former House Speaker Newt Gingrich (55% to 35%) in general election trial heats.

Obama’s job ratings in this state remain lackluster, with 48% approving and 44% disapproving. However, these marks are somewhat better than what he is receiving nationally, where the average of his poll ratings are 44% approve and 51% disapprove.

In respect to how voters here think about the overall direction of the U.S., 70% believe the country is seriously off on the wrong track. This appraisal is virtually the same as Californians’ assessments of the direction the country was heading during the last year of the George W. Bush administration.

These results come from a statewide survey among a representative sample of 1,000 California voters conducted November 15-27.

President Obama owns California, should win handily, but there is some danger for California Democrats who are down ticket. If there is no great enthusiasm to re-elect Obama, California voters are apt to stay home and not bother to vote.

This will help California GOP candidates who may be running in districts that have close Democrat Vs. Republican registration numbers.

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Nov 30 2011

President 2012 California GOP Poll Watch: Romney 26% Vs. Gingrich 23% Vs. Cain 9% Vs. Paul 5% Vs. Perry 3%

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Republican presidential candidate, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich speaks during town hall setting rally, Tuesday, Nov. 29, 2011, in Bluffton, S.C. Gingrich was in town to open the Newt 2012 Beaufort County field office in downtown Bluffton

According to the latest California Field Poll.

But….. 26% are undecided.

Without a doubt, Newt Gingrich is peaking at the right moment and will likely take most of Cain’s support after he withdraws.

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Nov 15 2011

President 2012 GOP California Poll Watch: Gingrich 33% Vs. Romney 23% Vs. Cain 22% Vs. Perry 6% Vs. Paul 5%

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According to the latest PPP Poll.

PPP’s national poll released yesterday found Newt Gingrich leading the Republican field and our numbers in California over the weekend back that up: Gingrich is on top there with 33% to 23% for Mitt Romney, 22% for Herman Cain, 6% for Rick Perry, 5% for Ron Paul, 3% for Michele Bachmann, 2% for Gary Johnson, and 1% each for Jon Huntsman and Rick Santorum.

This is only our second time polling California all year and the first was in late January, more than 9 months ago and before we were even including Cain in our polling.  But comparing the 2 polls still says something about the state of the race. In January Romney was at 22% and here in November…he’s still at 22%.  Meanwhile Gingrich has nearly doubled his support from 18% early in the year to his current 33% standing.  Gingrich is surging while Romney just sort of stays in place.

Of course, the race will be over prior to the California primary election which will be held in June of next year. And, President Obama dominates in the state.

But, should the GOP race linger, Gingrich would have the edge.

One thing the California numbers really point to is that if Cain’s support continues declining Gingrich has the potential to benefit in a major way. Among Cain voters 42% say Gingrich would be their second choice compared to 14% for Bachmann, 12% for Romney, and only 8% for Perry. Cain voters are fond of Gingrich, giving him a 60/30 favorability rating. Meanwhile they’re not too keen on either Romney (30/56) or Perry (32/54). Neither of those guys is very well positioned to benefit if the bottom falls out on Cain.

For all that there’s reason to think Gingrich’s stay at the top could be short lived. Only 38% of his supporters say that they’re firmly committed to him compared to 53% for Cain and 52% for Romney, his fellow front runners. If the knives come out for Newt now that he’s looking like a serious contender he doesn’t exactly have a strong base of support to fall back on- what he has right now is inch deep support that could disappear quickly if things stop going well.

The entire poll is here.

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Nov 14 2011

President 2012 California Poll Watch: All Obama – All of the Time

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According to the latest Survey USA Poll.

SurveyUSA looks at the two most likely Republican nominees, alone and paired as a Republican ticket, running against the existing Democratic ticket of Barack Obama and Joe Biden, and a new Democratic ticket of Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton. Here is the progression of match-ups, and the results:

 

* Obama 50% 

* Romney 39%

* Democrat by 11 points.

 

* Obama 56%

* Gingrich 32%

* Democrat by 24 points.

 

* Democratic ticket of Obama-Biden 52%

* Republican ticket of Romney-Gingrich 38%

* Democrats by 14 points.

 

* Democratic ticket of Obama-Clinton 57%

* Republican ticket of Romney-Gingrich 35%

* Democrats by 22 points.

 

* Democratic ticket of Obama-Biden 53%

* Republican ticket of Gingrich-Romney 35%

* Democrats by 18 points.

 

* Democratic ticket of Obama-Clinton 57%

* Republican ticket of Gingrich-Romney 33%

* Democrats by 24 points.

There will not be much Presidential advertising done in California in 2012. There is littole doubt that President Obama will cruise to an easy win in California.

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